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福布斯2026年利率预測、米連邦準備系統的方向由誰來決定？

この記事を読むのに必要な時間は 8 分

金融緩和期待が高まっていますが、経済データは依然として中心的な変数です。

原文タイトル：2026 年の金利に期待されること
原著者：Simon Moore、Forbes
翻訳：Peggy、BlockBeats

Editor's Note: With the market betting on 2026 ushering in a "new Fed Chair + a new round of rate cuts" resonance, the U.S. interest rate path has once again become the main variable for global asset pricing.

CME futures show that the federal funds rate could fall to around 3% in 2026, below the current 3.75%-4% range, with the main cuts likely to be concentrated in the first half of the year. However, against the backdrop of inflation not fully returning to target and signs of weakening employment, the policy outlook remains uncertain. Although the Trump administration is expected to appoint a new chair more inclined to looseness, the FOMC's operational mechanism determines that the policy tone will still be driven by economic data.

This article delineates the key interest rate schedule, rate cut expectations, and policy games in 2026, providing readers with a clear framework for understanding the direction of U.S. interest rates.

The following is the original text:

Following the routine Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in Washington, Fed Chair Jerome Powell answered questions at a press conference. Despite President Donald Trump's pressure for rate cuts, the U.S. central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.5% range.

Based on CMEFedWatch tool's rate futures pricing, the market generally expects a short-term rate cut cycle in 2026 under the backdrop of a "new Fed Chair," with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely to focus on a rate cut path in all eight meetings throughout the year.

Before that, the FOMC will still hold its final rate-setting meeting of the year on December 10, 2025. The market believes that there is a possibility of a small rate cut at this meeting, but the probability of keeping rates unchanged should not be ignored.

2026 年の金利の軌跡

Current pricing suggests that by December 2026, the federal funds rate is expected to fall to around 3%, below the current 3.75%-4% range.

However, there is still significant uncertainty in the interest rate outlook: in more extreme market estimates, rates could fall as low as 2% or continue to be maintained at the 4% level.

FOMC が最終的に利下げを開始する場合、市場は主要な利下げが 2026 年上半期に集中する可能性が高いと見ています。一方、米連邦準備制度理事会（Fed）のメンバー自身は 2026 年の利上げ水準についてより慎重であり、ほとんどの予測では利上げが依然として 3% 以上の水準で維持されると考えています。ただし、これらの予測は 9 月に公表されたものであり、12 月に再度更新されます。